Truth in Reportage. The whole idea for this post was generated by Matt Baker’s contemplation this morning at theathletic.com.
Which fascinating it’s-the-off-season-so-whatever-to-write-about rabbit hole boiled down to this query: Which school is the worst of the eventual best of list — Arizona State, North Carolina, , Louisville, South Carolina, Stanford, Utah, Wisconsin — that Nick Saban could reasonably have led to a national title?
I hearken back for just a moment to my last post, where I not totally regrettably asked my readers to suggest article topics for these fallow summer months on the collegiate sports scene. Baker, and we’re far from alone, obviously is searching for stuff to keep readers interested until games kickoff in August.
It worked.
After going through a bunch of metrical data points, Baker arrived at those possible schools.
Of course, you must have realized by now, the winner is the University of Louisville Cardinals.
Otherwise, I wouldn’t have jumped to my keyboard before even finishing my morning joe to share the conjecture to those of you tuned in.
Baker’s process started with all the schools at the highest level. Then eliminated them using different factors. (Do not ask me to explain them. I couldn’t were I even to try.)
I: On Field Success.
II: Recruiting Average.
III: Five Star Ceiling.
IV: Money.
V: NFL Draft.
VI: Proven Potential.
Which arithmetic elimination process parried the list down to 33 schools. Then the writer eliminated all which had never claimed a natty in the AP Poll era (since 1936), leaving the Cards and those others listed above.
Baker completes his pondering with this quote: Pair a Saban defense with 2016 Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and a national title doesn’t seem outlandish.
* * * * *
I shall now remind readers what I wrote about Howard Schnellenberger when he jumped ship, about John L. Smith when he took his talents elsewhere, about Bobby Petrino when he thought the grass was greener outside Jefferson County, and when Charlie Strong went Lone Star.
If not exactly a sleeping giant, Louisville football has since The Pipe been legitimately on the cusp of becoming a legit national playah. Those guys were foolish to move on.
But none of those dudes was willing to stay the course.
I’m also reminded about an article a decade or maybe two ago where one of the astute national pigskin scribes — I believe Stewart Mandel — placed all the big schools in various tiers. Elite. Next Best. Etc.
In that column, the one school he didn’t tier was U of L. His reasoning was the same as mine. The Cards were poised to rise to levels previously unreached.
Where they remain.
But there is a difference now.
Jeff Brohm ain’t goin’ nowhere.
He’s a homie.
Cardinal blood courses through his veins. The love of the school is wrapped in the helix of his DNA.
No, he’s not Nick Saban.
But he’s a proven commodity and one of these years under his tutelage all the tumblers might fall in place.
— c d kaplan
It’s hard to hold top coaches when your stadium is 1/3 to 1/2 empty when the temperature dips into the 40’s or even 50’s, and heaven forbid it spits a little rain, and the opponent is less than a top name marquee program, or a big rival. Many if not most Louisville fans seem to grossly underestimate how our fair weather football fans hold our program back. At least two of those coaches you mention, John L and Charlie Strong, were publicly vocal about their distain for the soft support. We have maybe 35 – 40k hard core football fans. I am one of them, but that’s a mere fraction of the support that true contenders have. Another aspect is that a lot of our success is fools gold. We have always played in weak conferences save for a couple of good years for the Big East and the ACC. The ACC is Power 4, but consistently has ranked at the bottom of the Power 4/5 hierarchy of football power conferences. The ranking model for teams is, and even more so in the past has been that teams that win move up in the poles, somewhat (not totally) independent of strength of schedule. But look what has happened when we run up against power programs in bowls. We usually get waxed. What legitimate national contenders have we ever beaten, or competed with? Clempson 2016? Yep. Then we got curb stomped by LSU in the bowl because we had no depth on the OL and the starters were banged up by seasons end. Florida 2012? Maybe, but that Florida team was a poorly coached schizophrenic bunch who played down to their competition all season. I was one of a very few who gave us a legitimate shot to win that game. Not because we were great (we closed out the regular season with a home loss to 5 – 7/2 – 5 UConn in front of an empty stadium, I was there in the cold), but because that Florida team was highly flawed despite the talent they had. So who is left? I’m out of ideas. WVU in 2006, maybe? That 2006 team was our best ever. Oh what could have been had Michael Bush’s leg not gotten broken. We had a shot at winning the title when it was a one off game against teams that played for the title due to a flawed ranking system. Winning the playoff? Not going to happen. We don’t have the support, and therefore the Benjamins to buy a roster deep enough with NFL talent. That is, unless I win a HUGE Powerball jackpot. 😉
There’s my man, my pigskin nemesis, back in midseason form. Love it.
I don’t think I qualify as a nemesis with this particular post. In the past most definitely I have occasionally had to keep you straight. (lol) Your piece today is a fantasy piece by definition. I’m just pointing out the realities of the limitations that our football program is saddled with at what is truly a basketball crazy school with soft support for football compared to football crazy schools. Some argue that if we had sustained success the support would come, but they have that backwards. For starters, just look at the soft attendance at some games even when we are having one of our best seasons. Just look at our basketball program as an example. We won NCAA titles eventually, because we were already one of the top basketball fan bases in the nation before we ever won an NCAA title. There is a name for fans who are in it only for the sizzle, not the love of the game itself, and who make the argument that they would get on board if we were a perennial top 10 football program. That name is “bandwagon fans”. No elite program has ever been built on the backs of bandwagon fans. Ever.
Jeff knows the lay of the land here, and he came here anyway. He is no question the absolute best fit for head ball coach of Louisville football. No one else is even close to as good a fit for long term stability. No one else who is successful and doesn’t get fired would stick around.
Of course, legit points all. I laugh when some seriously call U of L a football school.